Warning - Mines Ahead!

Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS

Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
Executive Director

June 4, 2020

Recently, two policy and security issues have been prominent where Israel, ‘with its own hands’, is liable to cause a strategic blow to its own national security: Unilateral annexation and screening of Chinese investments.

This document is a strategic warning in regard to these issues that of late already have show burgeoning signs of turning into a reality, a process in the framework of which Israel is liable to find itself facing increasing isolation.

Unilateral Annexation
A Terrible Blunder for Generations to Come?

Previous articles elaborated on the elements of the strategic blow to Israel in the wake of implementation of a unilateral annexation, whose outcomes are liable to be irreversible: Erosion of the foundations of peace with Jordan; undermining stability on Israel’s eastern frontier; a gradual decline of the Palestinian Authority with the IDF being ‘sucked into’ the vacuum; a blow to Israel’s regional and international standing - including in the domestic American arena; shaking the fabric of relationships between Jews and Arabs and more.

In recent weeks the first signs of the potential strategic blow that a move for unilateral annexation carries is already clearly evident:

A. Undermining peaceful relations with Jordan - In an interview in Der Spiegel, King Abdullah sent a clear warning message to Israel that “massive conflict” between Israel and Jordan can be expected, if Israel annexes parts of the West Bank. In response to the question whether the peace treaty between the two countries would be suspended, the King replied, “we are considering all options” and in any case “the law of strength should not apply in the Middle East”.

B. Decline of the Palestinian Authority - In the same interview, the King also warned of the collapse of the Authority in a way that would lead to “chaos and extremism in the region”. In a speech last week, Abu-Mazen declared that the PLO and the Authority were now released from "all agreements" with Israel and the United States. It would be a mistake to appraise this speech through the prism of previous speeches. This speech should not be viewed by Abu Mazen's intent or ability to follow through on his threats and warnings. Rather, the speech is an additional sign of Abu Mazen’s strategic distress personally, and that of the Palestinian Authority, which has already been weakening for years. Implementation of a unilateral annexation that would seal the fate of the Two State Solution - the raison d’être of the Authority - can be expected in the midrange to accelerate the process of the fading of the Palestinian Authority and its decline. Under such circumstances, the IDF will gradually be sucked into managing the lives of the Palestinian population in Judea and Samaria in a way that will make it difficult for the army to address threats emanating from Iran and on the northern front, and to prepare for war.

C. Potential for escalation in Judea and Samaria and Gaza - This week, after a long period of relative calm in Judea and Samaria, signs were marked of unrest and a change in the atmosphere, expressed in a unusual series of terrorist attacks, some lethal. In the background, the economic crisis created by the Coronavirus pandemic is expected to gravely effect the Palestinian economy both in Judea and Samaria and Gaza, and this week it was reported that in the security establishment fears are rising that the economic blow might lead to escalation in many dimension.

D. A blow to Israel’s foreign relations in the regional and international arenas - Pressed and led by France, the European Union is carrying out a series of discussions of ways to dissuade Israel from going forward with annexation. The foreign ministers of the EU are examining steps in response against such a move, including suspension of Israel participating in projects in the educational and science sphere, promoting a UN decision against annexation, support for steps against Israel in the International Criminal Court, recall of their ambassadors and more. Parallel to this, despite what appears to be disgust with the Palestinian issue, heads of the Arab countries as well are apprehensive of unilateral annexation and vigorously oppose it on a declarative level. In the meeting of the Arab League held at the close of last month, a declaration was made by the Arab states that annexation would constitute a war crime; the Saudi Arabian foreign ministry declared that the Kingdom opposes any unilateral steps, and the foreign minister of the United Emirates released a statement opposing such a move that was unusually strong-worded.

E. The Position of the United States - It appears that in the face of reactions in the regional and international arena, the Trump Administration as well is signaling Israel not to gallop ahead with annexation unilaterally. In addition, Israel needs to take into account a scenario where a Democratic Administration will take office in the United States that is expected to oppose unilateral annexation, eroding even more Israel’s status as a matter of bipartisan consensus in American politics.

During the past week, a double-barreled warning from the Democratic Party was launched at Israel: The Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden expressed opposition to annexation, even clarifying that he would reverse steps taken by Trump that undermine the peace process; and a string of senior Democratic Senators warned Israel’s prime minister and defense minister in an official letter that unilateral annexation could do harm to the special relationship between the United States and Israel.

China - a Threat to Israel’s Special Relationship with the United States

Another issue where Israel’s own actions will have a dramatic impact on its diplomatic-security status, particularly with the United States, Israel’s greatest ally, is screening and transparency with the United States regarding of Chinese investments.

The United States views China as the gravest threat to its national security in the present era. In American eyes, China challenges international norms and constitutes an economic and military threat to values such as liberty, free movement of people and goods, respect for human rights and sovereignty.

Competition and conflicts between the United States and China have reached new heights against the backdrop of the Coronavirus crisis. In this framework, President Trump has gone so far as to raise the possibility of breaking off all relations with China. Among other things, the United States fears China, which was the first to recover from the crisis, is liable to take advantage of the internal economic weaknesses of countries and business entities to execute gigantic investments designed to take over strategic infrastructure and other assets that are sensitive from a security and technological perspective.

Against this backdrop, the Administration has sent signals to its allies that they must ‘choose sides’ between the United States and China.

The Administration has let Jerusalem know that it is troubled by Israel’s actions in regard to Chinese investments, and has criticized the performance of government agencies in Israel on this score. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker clarified on the eve of Secretary of State Pompeo’s visit in Israel that investment-screening and approval of Chinese investments in Israel are flawed, because they do not cover technological realms, and the supervisory entity’s conclusions are not binding on the private sector. “I think they can do a whole lot better and I think they should” he said.

In the background additional publications have generated displeasure in the American Administration – the expectations that by next year a Chinese firm will be handling operations at Haifa Port; and growing Chinese interest in additional investments in national infrastructure and Israel’s innovative technology in a host of domains.

Policy Recommendations

In light of the serious warning signals the Israeli government has received, it needs to conclude that annexation—should it be unilateral, constitutes a strategic threat to the security, economy, and foreign relations of Israel, and Israel’s character as a Jewish and democratic state, and refrain from any move in this regard that would not be coordinated with the United States.

On the Chinese issue, it seems that the Israeli government needs ‘to recalculate its path’ in all aspects of policy vis-à-vis approval of Chinese investments in infrastructure and sensitive technology, and improve its investment-screening mechanisms on such investments, with coordination and full transparency with Washington. This is needed to ensure that Israel lives up to American standards, and so the Administration can conclude that Chinese actions in Israel do not threaten the interest of the United States. Israel needs to make all efforts to refrain from a grave crisis in its relations with the United States, as in serious crises at the close of the 1990s and in mid-2000 (surrounding upgrading and sale of Israeli advance airborne platforms to China) that struck at the heart of the special relationship and trust with the United States -- the defense relationships between the two countries.

In the framework of balancing American interests and Israel’s needs to broaden its economic ties with China, Israel needs to always keep in mind that there is no substitute for America as the greatest and most important strategic ally of Israel.

This document was written by the team of the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS)

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