A new government in Israel:
What is the required policy?
Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS
Executive Director
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
July, 2021
Photo: Haim Tzach - GPO | CC BY-SA 3.0
Within several weeks of the inauguration of the new Israeli government, the immediate challenges with which it must grapple urgently and vigorously clearly emerge.
Preparedness for a campaign in Gaza, governance in the West Bank
The challenge:
It appears that no significant deterrence has been achieved vis-à-vis Hamas following the last operation in Gaza. The heads of the organization, led by Yahya Sinwar, seem elated and resonate their accomplishments during it against the backdrop of polls indicating Hamas' dramatic surge in popularity in Palestinian public opinion at the expense of Abu Mazen and Fatah, the dislike of whom is unprecedented.
Under such circumstances, the heads of Hamas do not hesitate to threaten Israel, and the security equilibrium in the Gaza Strip is extremely fragile due to the incendiary balloons, as well as the exacerbating domestic distress.
Under such circumstances, the heads of Hamas do not hesitate to threaten Israel, and the security equilibrium in the Gaza Strip is extremely fragile due to the incendiary balloons, as well as the exacerbating domestic distress.
The response:
In view of the Gaza campaign's problematic balance, and the lessons that the players forming the radical axis headed by Iran are likely to have learned from it, particularly with regard to the efficiency of rocket and missile warfare, Israel is required to restore its deterrence vis-à-vis Hamas. The new government should stand behind its warnings, and respond kinetically, forcefully and disproportionately to any breach of the quiet by Gaza's terror groups. Moreover, an MIA and POW deal with a hefty price tag should be avoided, as it could strengthen Hamas' image at a problematic time.
Concurrently, Israel would be wise to expand the humanitarian and civil aid to the Gaza Strip as part of an airtight oversight mechanism provided by the Palestinian Authority and UN to ensure that commodities and funds, especially from Qatar, are not delivered directly to Hamas or serve its military purposes. To do so, close coordination with Egypt is required to ensure that it does not enable the flow of dual-use materials through the Rafah crossing without proper oversight.
Furthermore, the Israeli government must fundamentally alter its attitude toward the Palestinian Authority, which represents the political alternative for the resolution of the conflict, and should be strengthened in every way as the governing system in the West Bank. Moreover, Israel should strive to build the PA as an alternative to Hamas in the Gaza Strip in the long range, in case Israel will be forced to collapse the movement's regime there, otherwise, Israel will always remain the only other alternative there.
In the West Bank, Israel is required to urgently evict the illegal outpost Evyatar, which is gradually becoming a symbolic point of friction and tension that negatively impacts stability on the ground. Both inhabitants and infrastructure must be evicted immediately in accordance with the "fresh invasion" protocol to avoid red tape and negative precedents. Should the outpost remain on the ground, wholly or partially, it could provide fuel against Israel for the international community, inter alia, in the International Criminal Court in the Hague.
Concurrently, Israel would be wise to expand the humanitarian and civil aid to the Gaza Strip as part of an airtight oversight mechanism provided by the Palestinian Authority and UN to ensure that commodities and funds, especially from Qatar, are not delivered directly to Hamas or serve its military purposes. To do so, close coordination with Egypt is required to ensure that it does not enable the flow of dual-use materials through the Rafah crossing without proper oversight.
Furthermore, the Israeli government must fundamentally alter its attitude toward the Palestinian Authority, which represents the political alternative for the resolution of the conflict, and should be strengthened in every way as the governing system in the West Bank. Moreover, Israel should strive to build the PA as an alternative to Hamas in the Gaza Strip in the long range, in case Israel will be forced to collapse the movement's regime there, otherwise, Israel will always remain the only other alternative there.
In the West Bank, Israel is required to urgently evict the illegal outpost Evyatar, which is gradually becoming a symbolic point of friction and tension that negatively impacts stability on the ground. Both inhabitants and infrastructure must be evicted immediately in accordance with the "fresh invasion" protocol to avoid red tape and negative precedents. Should the outpost remain on the ground, wholly or partially, it could provide fuel against Israel for the international community, inter alia, in the International Criminal Court in the Hague.
The budget and multi-annual plan
The challenge:
The possibility that Israel will be forced to launch another campaign in Gaza in the near future reinforces the urgent need to pass a state budget.
The response:
Beyond outlining a long-term direction and priorities which Israel needs so desperately, a bi-annual budget would enable the IDF to implement its multi-annual plan, and build up solutions and operational capabilities in response to the security challenges that lie ahead while bridging urgent gaps in the home front's preparedness for times of emergency.
Preparing for "the morning after" the return to the JCPOA
The challenge:
The negotiations between the United States and great powers and Iran in Vienna are entering their final stages, so Israel's ability to impact the agreement's final clauses is limited. The U.S. administration is eager to return to the nuclear deal, and is willing to make far-reaching concessions as part of a global strategic agenda that seeks to secure its flanks and turn to the struggle against China on world order and supremacy, which it views as historical.
The response:
Israel should prepare for the "morning after" the nuclear deal, which will buy it some time, inter alia to build up its force in order to prevent a future Iranian breakout to weapons-grade nuclear material. At the same time, it must not abandon the possibility that the negotiations between Iran and the great powers would fall through, and Israel would encounter the problem head on. Already Iran is nearing a nuclear threshold, for it is in possession of some 110 kg of 20% purity enriched uranium (out of the 230-250 kg required for a bomb).
The Israeli government must restore trust vis-à-vis the Biden Administration by shifting from loud oppositional diplomacy to a quiet intimate dialogue with it, based on their shared view that Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. The government should engage in a combined national-level inter-agency discussions to consolidate Israel's strategy, views and demands in preparation for its entry into a secret dialogue with the United States for the obtainment of some guarantees and capabilities.
The Israeli government must restore trust vis-à-vis the Biden Administration by shifting from loud oppositional diplomacy to a quiet intimate dialogue with it, based on their shared view that Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. The government should engage in a combined national-level inter-agency discussions to consolidate Israel's strategy, views and demands in preparation for its entry into a secret dialogue with the United States for the obtainment of some guarantees and capabilities.
Arab-Jewish relations
The challenge:
The violence that erupted in northern Israel (Deir el Assad in the Galilee) and the lethal Jarushi family dispute, which continues to claim lives, have demonstrated that the governance problem in Arab society and the profound rift in Arab-Jewish relations are far from resolved. It is a ticking timebomb that strategically threatens the State of Israel as a functioning state under the rule of law.
The response:
The Israeli government should implement uncompromising enforcement to restore order (intelligence, arrests, legal action, deterring punishments), for it is instrumental in getting life back on track – a crucial condition for addressing and bridging the rift between the two communities. At the same time, national plans and budgets should be implemented and expanded immediately in order to address Arab society challenges. At the heart of this effort, crime must be eradicated, local leaderships encouraged and supported, and integration processes with Jewish society and state institutions accelerated.
Restoring Israel's status in the United States
The challenge:
The escalation in Gaza has revealed the deterioration in Israel's status in the United States, and the worrying ongoing erosion in its being a bipartisan consensus, which is one of its most significant assets in the United States.
The response:
Israel must form a comprehensive national plan for the restoration of its bipartisan status in the United States, as well as its relations with both the American Jewry and Democratic Party.
COVID-19 is still here
The challenge:
COVID-19 has once again broken out, demonstrating the potential damage of variants entering Israel, as they could be detrimental to the accomplishments made vis-à-vis the pandemic, particularly if a variant will evolve and threaten the vaccine's effectiveness.
The response:
The government is required to oversee entry into Israel through Ben Gurion Airport and other border crossings uncompromisingly, imposing tests and self-isolation. At the same time, it should expedite vaccines for teens and others who meet the criteria.
Jordan – relations reach a low point
The challenge:
The steps Israel has taken in recent years, such as the annexation plan, water quotas dispute, conflicts over Jerusalem and Jordan's (founded) concern about erosion in its status in the sacred sites in favor of Saudi Arabia have had a detrimental effect on Israel's relations with the kingdom, undermining the peace accord with it. The Hashemite Kingdom's stability has also been put to the test in the shadow of the pandemic and recent escalation in Gaza.
The response:
Jordan is irreplaceable as a factor in Israel's security (quiet border and strategic depth). The Israeli government must take on the restoration of its relations with Jordan as a special project. It is required to help the Hashemite Kingdom urgently with vaccinations and water quotas, renew its recognition of Jordan's special status in Jerusalem's sacred sites, and help it garner regional and international aid.
Ultimately, the Israeli government faces a series of urgent challenges that should be vigorously addressed. The suggested policies and actions are aligned with the recommendations of top professional echelons in Israel, are not expected to cause any profound disputes between the various political parties forming the new government, and can be executed immediately.