World Order In Crisis:
Implications for Israel

Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS
Executive Director
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
March, 2022
26-3-20main-...
Photos: pixabay.com | maxpixel.net

Russia seeks to be a gamechanger in Europe, and redesign the world order formed after the Cold War had ended. The wide-ranging attack against the Ukraine does not merely aim to replace its government with a Russian "puppet regime", but also strives to convey a message to the West, and the United States in particular, whereby Russia will not hesitate to use force to safeguard its "strategic boundaries", is willing to go to war with the long-term objective of ending American global hegemony, and establish a multilateral world order reflective of Russia's importance and centrality.

The West, led by the U.S., spearheads an overall pressure policy designed to curb Russian aggression, collect a high toll from it, and turn it into a "leper" in the international arena. The United States, which orchestrates the western coalition, is taking actions that fall short of direct war against Russia, while employing unprecedented political and economic measures.

 
The strategic midgame score

President Biden suffered setbacks internally and externally – declining popularity in the American public, growing criticism in view of the financial situation, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and emerging nuclear deal with Iran, and above all – the damage to the United States' international image of power and deterrence.

Washington realizes that the Ukrainian crisis will directly project onto the second half of President Biden's term in office, his political survival, presidential legacy, as well as the United States' status as a hegemonic world power.

Even before the fighting began, the U.S. had made it very clear that it would not be helping the Ukraine militarily, for it has no military security pact with it, and refuses to get dragged into a campaign against Russia that could deteriorate into a third world war. At the same time, the U.S. has managed to unite NATO, while rallying up an effective coalition consisting of the EU, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Japan, and heading unprecedented steps designed to cause detrimental economic harm to Russia, isolating it in the global arena while branding it as a reactionary force undermining international stability.

At this stage, the West's response has focused on imposing unprecedented financial sanctions, building up military forces in Europe, closing down Europe's airspace (and later, sea space) to Russian aircraft, and military assistance to the Ukraine, alongside a diplomatic campaign designed to demonize and delegitimize Russia in the international system, while leading the UN Security Council and General Assembly to condemn Russia. The steps taken by the West are coordinated for greater effectiveness, and incremental so as to demonstrate to Moscow the future price it can expect to pay.

China is coordinated with Russia, seeking to break down American world order, and promote its Belt and Road Initiative as means of expanding its economic and political influence. However, this does not mean that China will take advantage of this crisis to directly challenge the United States and West by creating escalation on an additional front. Chinese strategy is a long-term one, and strives to gradually establish global impact. Thus, China had abstained from the vote condemning Russia in the UN Security Council – a step perceived as the West's successful isolation of Moscow. Nevertheless, should the U.S. display weakness and allow Moscow to achieve its strategic goals, Beijing probably will not hesitate to leverage it, and promote its own power moves in the South China Sea.

Are the economic sanctions effective? The economic sanctions led by the West include restrictions on most of the Russian financial-banking sector, excluding, at this stage, the energy sector in view of Europe's dependence on Russia in this area. Personal sanctions have also been imposed on President Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov, and other senior officials in Russian political leadership.

To date, Russia has not lost its financial stability thanks to the foreign exchange and gold reserves it had accumulated (about 630 billion USD), as well as the fact that it had prepared in advance for possible sanction-imposing, inter alia by means of strengthening its strategic ties with China. Nevertheless,
the impact of the sanctions is a lasting one, and their effectiveness will be put to the test when confronted with the West's ability to keep them in place in the long range, effectively intensifying the Russian economy's isolation.

The "doomsday device" of cutting the Russian economy off from the international payment processing system (SWIFT) was partially used by the United States, EU and UK, all of which had announced that they would disconnect select banks from the interbank system, while intensifying restrictions on the Russian Central Bank. This step is expected to make it harder for Moscow to use its foreign exchange reserves or conduct international transactions, impede its ability to export and import, demotivate other actors engaging in deals with Russia, and considerably weaken its financial institutions. However, Russia has already proven its ability to withstand sanctions, and transfer funds via countries excluded from them.

The historical dimension: The Russian campaign in the Ukraine is being presented in Moscow and Kiev in historical terms, with World War II symbols and metaphors recurringly used on both sides to demonstrate the importance of this historical moment, as well as its potential to become a turning point in the global balance of power. Russia is committed to the military campaign in the Ukraine, which it perceives as a battle over maintaining the Russian lifestyle, curbing western influence as well as NATO's proximity to its borders, coupled with its desire to resume its standing and central position in a multipolar world order. The United States and West are engaged in a holding battle that aims to delineate war in the Ukraine, demand a high price of Russia in terms of its economy and global status, as well as establish effective deterrence that would prevent Moscow from expanding the fighting to additional arenas. Washington is well aware of the historical implications of the Russian maneuver on world order, and the price of the West's failure in relation to the strategic competition against China.

 
Implications
  • Russia perceives the campaign in the Ukraine as a phase within its long-range strategy of returning to global center-stage as a great power, as well as a platform for showcasing its military might, and establishing effective deterrence vis-à-vis NATO and the U.S. However, the incursion into the Ukraine could turn into a Pyrrhic victory for Moscow in the medium-long range, in view of the heavy toll it would be forced to pay in the political, economic and domestic arenas. President Putin's instruction to the nuclear forces to be on high alert in view of "NATO's aggressive statements" attests to Moscow being under pressure in view of the effectiveness of the West's measures, the high toll of which is unprecedented.
     
  • The decision to engage in negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine on the border with Belarus without setting any preconditions was made in light of Russia's failure to launch a decisive attack by blitz, despite the scales of military force tipping clearly in its favor. The talks in themselves are an accomplishment for the Ukrainian government, which has thus far managed to withstand the military offensive against it, but do not necessarily guarantee their success. In any event, Russian victory on the battlefield will not lead to lasting strategic triumph in light of the large-scale popular resistance to Russian occupation, and the absence of international legitimization.
     
  • The strategy embraced by the West, headed by the United States, aims to demand a heavy price from Russia that would cause its economy to crash in the long range, turning it into a "leper" in the international arena, and establishing effective military deterrence in NATO territories. The West is trying to avoid direct military confrontation, and deteriorating to an overall war, but views the campaign in the Ukraine as part of the overall fight over world order, and therefore will not hesitate to keep exerting pressure, including just below the threshold of war. In this context, the crisis in the Ukraine is a test of leadership for President Biden, which he has thus far passed with flying colors.
     
  • Moreover, the United States is demanding that its allies "close ranks" with its punishment and condemnation policy. Over time, the other countries would find it increasingly more difficult to remain neutral in the escalating campaign between the West and Russia, and this too would come with a price tag. Under such circumstances, it is becoming ever more likely that the limits of this campaign would be broadened, leading to a greater risk of miscalculation.
     
  • At this time, Israel is trying to "walk on eggshells" in view of the threat posed by Russia to its freedom of action in the struggle to curb Iranian entrenchment in Syria. However, the United States and Europe will clearly demand that Jerusalem align itself with its strategic ally's policy, and show full support for Washington despite the toll it would claim on the war between wars and regional campaign.
     
  • Another side effect of the war in the Ukraine is a possible delay in the nuclear deal being drafted in Vienna. The negotiations have reached their final stages, and the agreement is about to be re-signed, however, they may come to a shrieking halt if the great powers will not be able to work together to close the deal. By contrast, the dangerous scenario of an American move designed to "clear the table" and sign a nuclear deal quickly in order to allow focus to return to Russia could pose a profound challenge to Israel's security strategic interest.Under such circumstances, Israel would have to strengthen its strategic partnership with the U.S., and invest in force buildup that would enable it to take direct action against Iran when the time comes, while continuing with its efforts to curb Iranian entrenchment in Syria.
     
  • The war in the Ukraine once again highlights the importance of military might, and the need to establish military superiority in modern warfare. In the event that a nuclear deal is signed, Israel would have a decade-long extension during which to prepare for war against Iran, while fending off the latter's regional proxies. The IDF must develop a strategy that would enable it to defeat threats in the first circle, while investing in designated force buildup and deepening political and security ties with the Arab World so it may have effective action capabilities in the third circle.
     
  • Furthermore, the growing tension in the Gaza Strip and West Bank in preparation for Ramadan, as well as Hizballah's enhanced provocations on the northern border, such as having drones enter Israeli territory, exacerbate explosivity in the region. The United States will probably ask Israel to ensure quiet to allow it to focus on Russia, and refrain from steps that could lead to escalation. Jerusalem must take the broader strategic context into account, namely Washington's inability to divert its attention and resources to other arenas, and minimize the explosivity in the north and vis-à-vis the Palestinians as much as possible.