The Israeli Government is at a Crossroads

Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS

Executive Director
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead

February, 2023

One month after the government was formed, Israel is now facing combined multidimensional threats that emanate from the interactions between negative internal processes and its ability to address growing external challenges. First and foremost, it is up against the risk of its internal cohesion and economic resilience being chipped away, as well as the possibility of a sharp and rapid deterioration in its relations with the Palestinian Authority, and the aggravating threat posed by Iran.

Moreover, the steps that the newly-formed Israeli government strives to take are in stark contrast to the basic views of the U.S. administration in issues pertaining to liberal and democratic values and the relations with the Palestinians. This outlook was illustrated in the words of President Biden, as quoted by Tomas Friedman, that "The genius of American democracy and Israeli democracy is that they are both built on strong institutions, on checks and balances, on an independent judiciary". Thus, the repeated clarifications and condemnations made by Washington with regard to the policy expected from Jerusalem should be viewed as a strategic warning about the future of the relations between the two countries.

The emerging trends seem negative. However, these processes are reversible, and the government can change the route it is taking. To do so, the government must exhibit caution and political wisdom, as it has done, for instance, in the dismantling of the Or Chaim outpost, the decision not to evacuate Khan al-Ahmar and the prime minister’s visit to Jordan. These examples were part of its effort to prevent escalation, and preserve the strategic assets available to it, primarily its special relations with the United States, and partnerships with the peace and normalization states. The military exercise conducted with the U.S. Army (Juniper Oak) demonstrates just how crucial strategic and operational coordination with the United States is.

From a practical perspective, the Israeli government should immediately curb the promotion of the justice system reforms, and avoid any steps that could be seen as preparation for annexation or altering of the status quo at Temple Mount. Should the current policy continue to be advanced, the threats Israel faces will exacerbate, and impede the government’s ability to formulate a comprehensive strategic response with which to contend with them.

National resilience – Deterioration and divisiveness

Despite the absence of statistical measurement, one can determine with certainty that the social cohesion index in Israeli society has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks, particularly in view of the government’s proclaimed steps in the area of law and its intentions to promote the first reading of the bills (out of three) in the coming few days. What it has called a legal reform designed to strengthen democracy is being perceived by large parts of the population as a governmental coup that weakens democracy, and actually encourages the development of a more centralized and aggressive regime.

A practical analysis of the components of the suggested reform reveals that, in its current format, it could harm essential components of the Israeli system of government. For example, modifying the composition of the judicial selection committee could have significant impact on judges’ level of professionality and trustworthiness, subordinating the justice system to the government and Knesset. Legislating the override clause by a majority of just 61 Members of Knesset will allow the government to abolish and circumvent any Supreme Court ruling while overlooking many democratic principles. Canceling reasonability, which is practiced in most western countries, would be detrimental to the courts’ independence, as well as individuals’ ability to defend themselves against the authorities. The final step is to turn legal advisors in government ministries into positions of trust in a way that could impede their professional discretion, and open the door to decision making with no essential legal limitations.

An analysis of the actions that the government intends to take in the area of law raises grave concern over the weakening of democracy. The aim of these steps is to create absolute, uninterrupted governability for the government and the person heading it, with no judicial oversight, similar to other dictatorial regimes worldwide. These moves could have negative implications on Israel’s standing, image, and economic resilience in the international arena, as well as its ability to actively address the security challenges it faces.

This process is expected to further deepen the divisiveness and rift in Israeli society, and joins other steps being implemented rapidly in the background, which are equally expected to make it harder for the government to conduct itself vis-à-vis the international community, and deepen the divisiveness and rift in Israeli society. It is so in education, , the powers of the military rabbinate and the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), as well as the termination of all public transportation services on weekends. It is therefore clear that an ongoing weakening is observed in areas related to national resilience as well, which could have a direct impact on aspects of Israel’s national and economic security.

The simmering Palestinian system

The tension stemming from the combination of violence on the ground which was demonstrated by the murderous attacks carried out in Jerusalem and the severe crisis between Israel and the Palestinian Authority due to the deduction of Israeli collected tax payments is soaring. In the meantime, international rage is accumulating over the implications of the new government’s proclaimed steps, particularly with regard to the PA’s status and infringement upon its financial capabilities. Thus, it is becoming increasingly more likely that Israel and the Palestinian Authority are on a collision course that could lead to destabilization in the status of the latter.

Beyond the challenge of filling the governmental void that could be created, there is also potential for increased friction as the month of Ramadhan, due to take place in late March, draws near. Escalation in the West Bank, particularly if associated with the issue of Temple Mount, could also project onto other arenas, including the Israeli domestic system. Such escalation could also be used by Hamas, which has been trying to promote terrorism in the West Bank for some time now.

A Jordanian warning sign

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s publicized visit to Jordan, for the first time since 2018, aimed to convey the message whereby Israel attributes great importance to the preservation of its strategic relations with the Hashemite Kingdom. The visit was held against the backdrop of the tension between the two countries following Minister Ben Gvir’s visit to Temple Mount, and the incident during which the Jordanian ambassador was delayed when he sought to enter the Al Aqsa Mosque. Jordan’s press release after the visit had ended demonstrated its tremendous sensitivity to Israeli conduct on Temple Mount in view of its concern that the new government would lead to a change in the status quo in the holy sites in such a way as to cause detriment to Jordan’s special status as anchored in the peace agreement.

The strategic partnership between Israel and Jordan is a key aspect of Israel’s national security perception, as well as its overall campaign against Iran and the threat of terror. Thus, Israel should continue to actively strengthen the Hashemite Kingdom, and avoid any unilateral step, particularly on Temple Mount, that would spark a violent conflict with the Palestinians, while projecting onto King Abdullah’s status as well. In this context, Israel is advised to actively bolster the status of the Waqf clerks and guards on Temple Mount too, and tighten its collaboration with them.

The war in Ukraine – On the brink of escalation

Russia and Ukraine are preparing for an escalation in fighting within the next few weeks, once the weather and land conditions will allow it. In this context, western willingness to supply Ukraine with key weapon systems, primarily Patriot batteries and advanced tanks, is prominent. The reason being that the West understands there is no other way of enabling Ukraine to curb the Russian counterattack while promoting its own.

At the same time, it seems that the strategic axis between Russia and Iran is continuing to expand, and the possible supply of SU-35 to Iran in springtime is being discussed. In fact, the longer the war will continue, the more acute will Russia’s shortage of weapons become, increasing Moscow’s dependence on military aid from Iran. As a result, Moscow would have to offer more in return, thereby standing to strengthen Iran’s military and technological capabilities too.

Thus, Israel faces very limited options by way of gnawing at the tightening relations between Russia and Iran. The government is, therefore, advised to focus its efforts on limited targets that overlap Russian interests – making sure that Russia will not help Iran in its pursuit of nuclear weapons, or change its policy in Syria.

To this end, Israel should continue to employ its cautious approach, which allows it to stand by Ukraine morally and ethically, while avoiding a confrontation with Russia for the purpose of retaining its freedom of action to attack Iranian targets in the region. From a practical perspective the Israeli government is advised to continue expressing its unequivocal support for Ukraine publicly, and providing extensive aid to it under the current constraints, while avoiding supplying it with air-defense and other firing systems.