The focus on politics and the internal schism have grown over the last three years, fueling the domestic rifts and leading to a "fire extinguishing" policy that centers solely on urgent matters, while avoiding thorough exploration of issues and the formulation of an overall strategy designed to address the fundamental challenges and problems faced by Israel and Israeli society.
Worse still is the fact that the new Jewish year has begun with exacerbating strategic turbulences internally, regionally and globally that could destabilize national security if they are not properly prepared for and addressed. First and foremost, there is the threat posed by Iran, who is continuing to race toward obtaining nuclear threshold capabilities, coupled with the concern over the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and accelerating “one state for two nations” trend.
In the immediate range, the most urgent and high-risk challenge is the exacerbating security situation in the northern West Bank, as it could deteriorate into the broad escalation for which Hamas is aiming, impacting the ability to promote partnerships with the peace- and normalization-seeking states, and projecting onto Israeli Arab society as well. The feelings of despair among Israeli Arabs, soaring crime, and prospective underrepresentation in the Knesset following the upcoming elections are causes of internal explosivity that could further deepen the rift between the Arab public, Israeli establishment and Jewish public.
In the global arena, the war in Ukraine is on the cusp of severe escalation due to the successful Ukrainian counterattack, announced annexation of regions to Russia, and growing tension between the West and Russia. The discourse on the latter’s possible use of nuclear weapons demonstrates the severity of the situation and strategic explosivity.
As it faces these challenges, Israel’s strategic status in the Middle East and international arena remains strong; however, resilience can be fleeting. The peace treaties signed with Egypt and Jordan, Abraham Accords and its growing importance to regional security are manifestations of the way Israel is perceived as a valuable asset with the economic and security capabilities of a great power. Its strategic alliance with the United States and ability to maintain strategic partnerships with other global powers (Russia, China, India) provide Israel with the flexibility it needs when using force and continuing its investment in force buildup so as to preserve its qualitative edge over its regional enemies and adversaries.
The government’s cautious and wise conduct in its management of the Karish rig crisis is noteworthy, and paves the way for an arrangement led by the United States that enable the production of gas from both Israel and Lebanon’s EEZ, thereby deactivating the ticking timebomb that is Hizballah.
At the same time, the outstanding collaboration between the security forces is preventing murderous terror attacks in Israel every single day that could have deteriorated into a full-fledged confrontation with the terror organizations in the West Bank and Gaza.