"The day After" Elections:
Eight Reality-Shaping Challenges

Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS
Executive Director
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
March, 2021
26-3-20main-...
Photo: Avi Ohayon - GPO
 
Israel is facing a series of strategic reality-shaping challenges. However, it is in the midst of an ongoing political crisis and holding off on taking the urgent necessary steps to craft a comprehensive coherent policy for addressing the developments and threats that may cast a heavy shadow on its national security and resilience.

Here are the eight key challenges the next Israeli government will come up against on "the day after" elections, as well as some recommendations for establishing a response on the strategic level.

Challenge One

Iran: On the nuclear threshold

The challenge:
Iran is consistently expanding its strategic capabilities – the nuclear project and precise long-range missile array; it continues to entrench itself militarily in the region as it aims to pose a direct threat to Israel near its borders, as well as from more distant arenas such as Iraq and Yemen; and is building the force of its proxies in the region, primarily Hizballah, which is being supplied with precise capabilities. Iran and its proxies are also posing a threat to Israeli interests in the Gulf, Red Sea, and across the globe (terror attacks). At the same time, rapid developments between the United States and Iran may lead both parties to a gradual coordinated return to the nuclear deal, despite its significant limitations with regard to stopping Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state.
The response:
While continuing to pursue "the campaign between wars" to impede Iran's regional activities, Israel should shift from loud confrontational diplomacy vis à vis the Biden Administration – that negatively projects on Israel's overall relations with the United States – to a quiet intimate dialogue based on the shared understanding that Iran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons while relying on collaboration channels in areas such as intelligence, defense, and operations between the two countries, and strengthening them. In order to build trust with the incoming administration that will enable Israel to impact U.S. policy, it must present constructive, practical views, and avoid threatening to opt for the military alternative, certainly not at present.

Challenge Two

The Palestinian arena: A potential loss of control

The challenge:
Fatah and Hamas are progressing rapidly toward elections in late May. The elections in the Palestinian arena may turn into a multidimensional strategic event and spin out of control. Should Fatah lose the elections due to the deepening rift and its splitting into camps, this event could become a milestone in Hamas' process of gaining control and imposing its 'armed resistance' agenda on the entire Palestinian system, including the PLO. This, alongside the process of Abu Mazen leaving, that may signal an internal war of succession in Fatah, would further weaken the Palestinian Authority as a governing system.
The response:
Israel should strive for an urgent dialog with the United States, Europe, the Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan in an attempt to reach understandings on an election postponement strategy if elections would emerge as a catalyst for Hamas' takeover of the West Bank; or at least on conditioning elections upon Hamas' compliance with the demands set by the Quartet.

At the same time, Israel should reintroduce the two-state solution into its agenda in close coordination with the Biden administration; and harness the normalization process with the Gulf states to give the Palestinian Authority some attention instead of casting it aside. Such steps, alongside the renewed ties between Washington and the PA, may mitigate the latter's weakening trend as a governing system, and counter its growing coordination with Hamas.

Challenge Three

U.S.-Israeli relations are being put to the test

The challenge:
The power transition in the United States is putting U.S.-Israeli relations to the test. Concrete foreign policy issues have become a bone of contention with the new administration, and Israel's status as a bipartisan consensus in the United States is significantly eroding, as is its image as the only democracy in the Middle East.
The response:
Israel must deflate all potential tension and friction with its biggest ally on three main issues: Iran, the Palestinians, and the great power competition (China and Russia). Israel is required to:

1. As previously mentioned, conduct quiet constructive dialogue with the administration on the issue of Iran;

2. Reintroduce the two-state solution into its agenda;

3. Cease all expansion of construction in the settlements, particularly outposts legalization and "crawling annexation";

4. Insist on full transparency with Washington on oversight of Chinese investments in sensitive Israeli infrastructure and technologies as well as with regard to Israel's relations with Russia to prove that these do not put American interests at risk.

Challenge Four

In the shadow of a multi-dimensional crisis:
Economic rehabilitation and the reinstatement of governance and decision-making

The challenge:
On the shadow of another election campaign, Israel is lacking the abilities to cope with the multi-dimensional crisis it is in. The gaps in national preparedness and the inability to take and implement necessary decisions have revealed dangerous governance gaps – particularly in the ultra-orthodox and Arab societies, as well as in Judea and Samaria – that emerge as a national threat to Israel as a state as well as to its health, economic, and social situation. A political and leadership crisis shatters citizens' trust in the government and their elected officials, and is also detrimental to compliance with directives, which further exacerbates the governance problem.
The response:
An inter-ministerial team of professionals and experts that will form a serious, comprehensive national plan for stabilizing the economy (like the one established in the mid-1980s) designed to address approximately one million unemployed individuals and lead Israel back to full employment and renewed growth on "the day after" the pandemic.

The government should manage the pandemic exit strategy gradually, cautiously and calculatedly, while enforcing regulations unequivocally and uncompromisingly in all areas and according to level of morbidity.

A budget for 2021-2022 must be urgently approved, for it will provide the direction and stability anchor required in the long rehabilitation process of the economy. The lack of such a budget creates public uncertainty, contributing to further exacerbation of the crisis.

Challenge Five

The legal arena: The Hague threat

The challenge:
The decision reached by the International Criminal Court Prosecutor in the Hague to launch an investigation into "the situation in the State of Palestine" surprised Israel, demonstrating that the ICC proceedings may move forward faster than anticipated, turning into a "sword of Damocles" hanging above its head.
The response:
Profound political coordination with the U.S. administration and European countries on the Palestinian issue, while ceasing expansion of the settlements, particularly outside the blocs, is expected to help Israel garner international support as it addresses the ICC examination. This should be part of a combined and coordinated campaign required on the legal (establishing an updated line of defense) and diplomatic levels.

Challenge Six

Restoring the fabric of relations with Jordan

The challenge:
Israel's policy in recent years is detrimental to the fabric of its relations with Jordan. The annexation plan threatened to shock the kingdom's stability, and the periodic diplomatic crises are gnawing at King Abdullah's status, which is facing some grave challenges as it is.
The response:
Israel must advocate the strengthening of the Hashemite throne in every way, and refrain from taking steps that corner it with respect to the Jordanian public opinion. Jordan is an irreplaceable crucial component in Israel's security. Its collaboration with the Hashemite Kingdom is keeping Israel's longest border quiet and safe, providing it strategic depth, inter alia, vis à vis Iran.

Challenge Seven

Eroding the QME

The challenge:
Israel's qualitative military edge is becoming increasingly eroded as its enemies, namely Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas, are obtaining advanced, precise weapons systems. At the same time, the Sunni Arab states are also rapidly acquiring some of the most advanced American and western weapon systems, threatening to create a regional arms race, and compromise the IDF's military advantage.
The response:
In view of Middle Eastern instability and uncertainty, Israel must maintain its Qualitative Military Edge (QME) vis à vis any possible combination of adversaries and arenas, as well as enhance its image of deterrence and power in the region.

Israel is required to expedite the implementation of the IDF's multi-annual buildup and acquisition plan based on an approved budget as well as critical reliance on future U.S. foreign military financing (FMF). Moreover, Israel should make the Biden administration realize, as it revisits the sale of F-35 aircraft to the UAE, that there are risks embedded in such a precedent that may shift the delicate power balance in the region.

Challenge Eight

Arab society is at a crossroads

The challenge:
Israeli Arab society is suffering from a sharp rise in crime and violence rates, which have been soaring in recent years. The governance and enforcement of state mechanisms in Arab society is gradually eroding, with local and national Arab leadership struggling to restore law and order too. As frameworks fall apart, despair and frustration are leading to a growing sense of dissociation and alienation among the younger generation, to the point that it is feeling detached from the State of Israel despite its fundamental desire to be part of it.
The response:
Arab society's exacerbating problems are a strategic challenge and ticking time bomb. The State of Israel must expand and implement its national plans and budgets for addressing Arab society. Its core effort should be directed at: expanding law enforcement and ending crime; encouraging and supporting local leaderships; investing more in education, as well as community and social activities; and accelerating the processes of integration into Jewish society.

Ultimately, Israel is experiencing one of its gravest multidimensional crises ever. A crisis of this magnitude requires an urgent response by its leaders. Elected officials must regain their composure, rise above narrow political considerations that cause strategic damage to Israel and its citizens, and take actions based on a national approach as well as structured long-term policies that will pave a way forward, creating hope and prospects for the public.