The world's attention is drawn to the crisis in the Ukraine, which puts U.S. and NATO's determination and deterrence capabilities to the test vis-à-vis Russia's aggressive moves. The Ukrainian crisis has implications on world order, as well as the United States' display of power in the Middle East. Should the Russian strategy succeed in the Ukraine, it would impact the behavior of Middle Eastern actors, including Iran.
The U.S. administration's Middle Eastern policy is to set modest, achievable goals using diplomacy and avoid the use of military instruments that could drag Washington into yet another campaign in the Middle East. This policy weakens American deterrence and influence, making the Arab world wonder how strong its support would prove to be when facing the Iranian challenge. Thus, some of the Sunni actors have opted to enhance their bilateral ties with Tehran.
Moreover, the absence of an overall regional American strategy, coupled with Washington's restraint following direct Iranian attacks against U.S. interests and targets, are weakening America's status, prompting countries in the region to reassert their own regional policy vis-à-vis Iran. Thus, the Iranian militia's strike against the American military base at Al Tanf (October 2021), and the attempted assassination of the Iraqi Prime Minister (November 2021) demonstrate Iran's willingness to take risks as it realizes that the United States wishes to refrain from being dragged into regional escalation.