Israel-U.S. relations are being put to the test
Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS
Executive Director
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
March, 2021
Photos: Avi Ohayon - GPO
The power transition in Washington is putting Israel-U.S. relations to the test. The two countries do not see eye to eye on several concrete foreign affairs issues, and Israel's status as a bi-partisan consensus in the United States, as well as its image as the only democracy in the Middle East have been significantly eroded.
Since President Biden has entered the White House, Israel-U.S. relations have become complex. The telephone call he made to Prime Minister Netanyahu does not change that.
Potential for tension and friction between the two countries focuses on three key issues: Iran, the Palestinians, and the great power competition (China and Russia).
Since President Biden has entered the White House, Israel-U.S. relations have become complex. The telephone call he made to Prime Minister Netanyahu does not change that.
Potential for tension and friction between the two countries focuses on three key issues: Iran, the Palestinians, and the great power competition (China and Russia).
Iran
The challenge:
The Biden Administration is reiterating its intention to return to the JCPOA and lift sanctions once Iran is compliant with it. It warns that if Iran will continue to broaden its breaches of the nuclear agreement, it could reach a point where it is within "weeks" of accumulating enough fissile material for a bomb, and attributes urgency to promoting a solution to this problem. By contrast, the Israeli Prime Minister and senior officials continue to criticize the new administration's policy heavily and publicly, with unrealistic Israeli "demands" being leaked to the Israeli media, such as ceasing all uranium enrichment activities in Iran, and ending all Iranian presence in the region. Already at this early stage, Israel also seems to be signaling to the Biden Administration that it is considering alterative military options.
Israel's criticism is viewed in Washington as defiant. President Biden and the cabinet members he appointed took part in drafting the nuclear deal; they believe in it, and regard the return to it as a solution for the foreseeable future that will allow them to address more pressing matters on the U.S. national list of priorities. Moreover, they still seem to be deeply upset by the steps Israel took to sabotage the JCPOA back in President Obama's term in office. Thus, should the new administration feel that Israel is once again bringing a conflictual approach to the table, a defiant discourse outside the "closed rooms", and what it perceives as unrealistic views – it may altogether "shut the door" on Israel's attempts to impact its policy. In such a scenario, the tension surrounding the Iranian issue could cloud the overall relations between the two allies, negatively impacting Israel's status and security in the region.
Israel's criticism is viewed in Washington as defiant. President Biden and the cabinet members he appointed took part in drafting the nuclear deal; they believe in it, and regard the return to it as a solution for the foreseeable future that will allow them to address more pressing matters on the U.S. national list of priorities. Moreover, they still seem to be deeply upset by the steps Israel took to sabotage the JCPOA back in President Obama's term in office. Thus, should the new administration feel that Israel is once again bringing a conflictual approach to the table, a defiant discourse outside the "closed rooms", and what it perceives as unrealistic views – it may altogether "shut the door" on Israel's attempts to impact its policy. In such a scenario, the tension surrounding the Iranian issue could cloud the overall relations between the two allies, negatively impacting Israel's status and security in the region.
The response:
The issue of Iran is emerging as the most urgent key factor shaping Israel's relations with the new administration in Washington. To avoid a conflict with the latter, the Israeli decision makers must lay low, and refrain from public, threatening diplomacy whereby its views are conveyed in advance to Washington, at times by the media.
Instead, it is advised to pursue quiet, intimate dialogue based on a shared view that Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, while relying on collaboration channels in areas such as intelligence, defense, and operations between the two countries, and strengthening them. In order to build trust with the incoming administration that will enable Israel to impact U.S. policy, it must present constructive, practical views, and avoid threatening to opt for the military alternative, certainly not at present.
At the same time, as part of its attempt to address the challenges posed by Iran, and the latter's efforts to build-up its proxies' force and entrench itself militarily in the region, Israel must urgently approve and present an organized buildup and acquisition plan for the IDF to the Biden Administration. The plan should be for the next few years, and be based on an approved budget as well as critical reliance on future U.S. foreign military financing (FMF) funds.
Instead, it is advised to pursue quiet, intimate dialogue based on a shared view that Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, while relying on collaboration channels in areas such as intelligence, defense, and operations between the two countries, and strengthening them. In order to build trust with the incoming administration that will enable Israel to impact U.S. policy, it must present constructive, practical views, and avoid threatening to opt for the military alternative, certainly not at present.
At the same time, as part of its attempt to address the challenges posed by Iran, and the latter's efforts to build-up its proxies' force and entrench itself militarily in the region, Israel must urgently approve and present an organized buildup and acquisition plan for the IDF to the Biden Administration. The plan should be for the next few years, and be based on an approved budget as well as critical reliance on future U.S. foreign military financing (FMF) funds.
The Palestinians
The challenge:
The Biden Administration supports the normalization agreements and their expansion, but underscores that they should contribute to the promotion of, and do not substitute a peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians. President Biden personally believes that the two-state solution is the only way for Israel and the Palestinians to move forward. His administration therefore warns that unilateral steps on the ground will negatively affect the chances of establishing a Palestinian state, reiterating its view earlier this month in response to KKL-JNF's suggestion to promote the acquisition of land in Judea and Samaria. President Biden's sensitivity to humanitarian issues and human rights in the Palestinian theater is also likely to increase.
Israel's continued objection to a two-state solution, expansion of settlements, particularly those outside the "blocks", and a "crawling annexation" are expected to cause disputes between Israel and the Biden Administration, and even make it harder for the latter to support the former's stance against the international criminal court in the Hague. Thus, the latest ruling of the ICC could become the sword of Damocles hanging over Israel's head. In light of critical American policy, tension is also expected to grow in Israel's relations with weighty countries in the region, namely Jordan and Egypt, who have been expressing increasing indignance over Israel's policy in the Palestinian theater.
Israel's continued objection to a two-state solution, expansion of settlements, particularly those outside the "blocks", and a "crawling annexation" are expected to cause disputes between Israel and the Biden Administration, and even make it harder for the latter to support the former's stance against the international criminal court in the Hague. Thus, the latest ruling of the ICC could become the sword of Damocles hanging over Israel's head. In light of critical American policy, tension is also expected to grow in Israel's relations with weighty countries in the region, namely Jordan and Egypt, who have been expressing increasing indignance over Israel's policy in the Palestinian theater.
The response:
Israel should reintroduce the prospects of the two-state solution to its agenda, in coordination with the Biden Administration, and harness the normalization process to inject resources into the Palestinian Authority instead of pushing it aside. Such steps, alongside the renewal of relations between the PA and Washington, including U.S. financial aid to the Palestinians, could impede the Palestinian Authority's weakening as a governing system, as well as its growing rapprochement with Hamas. Under such circumstances, Israel would also be able to avoid possible friction with the new administration with regard to the issue of the Palestinian elections.
Israel should focus on an open transparent dialogue with the U.S. administration to avoid repeating the failure of the 2006 elections, when Hamas grew stronger, as it could grow stronger still now. As part of its attempt to strike a balance between risks and opportunities, Israel should refrain from announcing its position at present on the Palestinian elections, while being prepared to stop Hamas at all costs from taking over or building a hostile infrastructure in Judea and Samaria. This could lead to Hamas taking over the Palestinian national movement - a development that might have severe implications for Israel's security. If Israel and the United States will engage in quality transparent dialogue, the latter may, at least, agree to the postponement of the elections in order to prepare the ground for the retention of positive forces in the Palestinian theater.
Israel should focus on an open transparent dialogue with the U.S. administration to avoid repeating the failure of the 2006 elections, when Hamas grew stronger, as it could grow stronger still now. As part of its attempt to strike a balance between risks and opportunities, Israel should refrain from announcing its position at present on the Palestinian elections, while being prepared to stop Hamas at all costs from taking over or building a hostile infrastructure in Judea and Samaria. This could lead to Hamas taking over the Palestinian national movement - a development that might have severe implications for Israel's security. If Israel and the United States will engage in quality transparent dialogue, the latter may, at least, agree to the postponement of the elections in order to prepare the ground for the retention of positive forces in the Palestinian theater.
China, Russia and the great power competition
The challenge:
The United States is displaying extreme sensitivity to the great power competition. The Biden Administration, much like its predecessor, views China as the most severe contemporary threat to U.S. national security. The competition and tension between the United States and China have reached new heights during the COVID-19 crisis. The United States is concerned that China, who was the first to recover from the crisis, would exploit countries' and businesses' internal weakness to make investments designed to take over strategic infrastructure and sensitive assets from a security and technological perspective.
The Trump Administration had signaled its concern over Israel's conduct vis à vis Chinese investments in national infrastructure and technology several times. It warned of gaps in the oversight process over China's penetration into the high-tech industry, as well as its acquisition of dual-use technologies that "place the United States at risk". U.S. concern over China's penetration into Israel made headlines once again when Washington learned that a Chinese company was involved in the expansion of the Haifa Port.
The United States is showing great sensitivity on Russia too, against the backdrop of the exacerbating tensions between the two, which reached new heights recently when Russia interfered with the U.S. elections, was behind a cybersecurity attack of unprecedented scope and depth against U.S. government agencies, and arrested opposition activist Alexei Navalny while clamping down on ensuing protests. Under such circumstances, the new administration is expected to be sensitive to Israel's relations with Russia, which Biden himself had defined as a severe threat.
The Trump Administration had signaled its concern over Israel's conduct vis à vis Chinese investments in national infrastructure and technology several times. It warned of gaps in the oversight process over China's penetration into the high-tech industry, as well as its acquisition of dual-use technologies that "place the United States at risk". U.S. concern over China's penetration into Israel made headlines once again when Washington learned that a Chinese company was involved in the expansion of the Haifa Port.
The United States is showing great sensitivity on Russia too, against the backdrop of the exacerbating tensions between the two, which reached new heights recently when Russia interfered with the U.S. elections, was behind a cybersecurity attack of unprecedented scope and depth against U.S. government agencies, and arrested opposition activist Alexei Navalny while clamping down on ensuing protests. Under such circumstances, the new administration is expected to be sensitive to Israel's relations with Russia, which Biden himself had defined as a severe threat.
The response:
Israel should act in such a way as to ensure that its oversight and approval of Chinese investments in sensitive infrastructure and technology meets American standards, and will not lead to a severe crisis in Israel-U.S. relations as it has in the past.
Israel must conduct itself vis à vis the United States with full coordination and transparency with regard to its ties with China and Russia, so that the U.S. administration will be able to determine that Chinese activity in Israel and Israel's relations with Russia do not jeopardize U.S. interests. Israel should also be aware of American sensitivity toward the high visibility of its relations with Moscow.
Israel must conduct itself vis à vis the United States with full coordination and transparency with regard to its ties with China and Russia, so that the U.S. administration will be able to determine that Chinese activity in Israel and Israel's relations with Russia do not jeopardize U.S. interests. Israel should also be aware of American sensitivity toward the high visibility of its relations with Moscow.
To conclude, building trust as well as close and coordinated working relations with the Biden Administration while restoring Israel's status in the United States as a bi-partisan consensus are top Israeli interests. Particularly in light of the multidimensional and unprecedented challenges Israel is facing during this pandemic. The United States has no substitute as Israel's largest and most important strategic ally, and therefore the interests and unprecedented political, security, and intelligence-related collaborations between the two countries, who ultimately share similar world views and values, must not be jeopardized.