The Global Crisis - Shock Waves

Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS

Executive Director
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead

April, 2022

The war in Ukraine continues, and the dimensions of destruction, casualties and refugees fleeing the country is still overwhelming, coupled with the growing fear that this campaign could expand, and drag the international community into a third world war. The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that the first phase of the military operation in Ukraine has been completed. While this statement may mark the Kremlin's desire to delineate belligerence and initiate a process of negotiations for an arrangement as part of the war of attrition in which the parties currently engage, it could also signal Russian regrouping in preparation for the next phase of this campaign, indicating the possibility of a lengthy war in this arena.

At present, there are no signs of the fighting ceasing, and the risk of miscalculation and campaign expansion increases. Thus, President Biden, arriving at the emergency European leaders' summit in Brussels, has warned Russia that Washington would respond in the event that Moscow should use chemical-biological weapons. Yet President Biden did not specify the nature of this response, but instead underscored that the U.S. and NATO will not be sending forces to Ukraine. The United States and the Western countries are therefore exerting greater economic and political pressure on Moscow, while increasing the military assistance provided to Ukraine, but are refraining from intervening there militarily for fear of deteriorating into overall escalation.

U.S. strategy seeks to hit Moscow with unprecedented economic and political sanctions that would ultimately crush the Russian economy, end the Russian energy monopoly in Europe, lead to NATO's military force buildup, as well as to new countries joining it as part of the pan-European security preparedness for curbing Moscow, and above all, prompt the establishment of an American-led world order. However, Russia's strategy is to resolutely withstand western sanctions, and exert ongoing military pressure on Ukraine in order to achieve its goals: pushing NATO and western influence away from Ukraine, and Russia's other strategic borders; and positioning the latter as a global power. Thus, Russia's use of force is a demonstration of the boundaries of western deterrence, and soft tools' inability to prevent military maneuvers.

Moreover, Russia is not the only great power to have used military tools as means of achieving its strategic goals. North Korea's launching of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time since 2017, which landed in Japan's EEZ, is yet another example of weakened American deterrence, illustrating the magnitude of the challenge posed by reactionary forces that, like Russia, seek to topple current world order. China and India are heading an independent global agenda that challenges the American interest, and hones multipolarity in the international arena. The scope of threats posed to the United States' status and security seems to be growing, with direct implications on its ability to divert attention and resources to the Middle East.

In this context, the talks toward the re-signing of the nuclear deal between Iran and the great powers is reaching its decisive moments, as the United States seeks to "clear its desk" and focus on the strategic threats to its security.. The key remaining bone of contention pertains to Iran's demand to have sanctions lifted from the IRGC, and the organization removed from the U.S. terror list. Nevertheless, senior Iranian officials are optimistic that these gaps are bridgeable, and, seeing as Washington is keen to "close the deal", the return to the JCPOA is likely to be just a matter of time.

Thus, as the negotiations over the renewed nuclear deal near the finish line, Iran is exerting greater pressure on Saudi Arabia and the UAE via attacks carried out in the region by its proxies. The Houthis have launched missiles at an oil depot in Jeddah, and suicide drones at Aramco refineries in Ras Tanura and Rabigh. This strike joins a series of attacks recently led by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia and the UAE under Iranian guidance.

Saudi Arabia has warned the international community that the Houthis' Iran-backed strikes could compromise the supply of oil to various markets at a time of global crisis and soaring energy prices. The attacks against Saudi Arabia and the UAE illustrate the feebleness of U.S. security support, confirming the Gulf's criticism of Washington for striving to reinstate the nuclear deal at all costs, even if it means legitimizing the IRGC while it issues direct attacks against them, and against American interests in the region. The fear of a nuclear agreement that would lead to the investment of billions in the Iranian entrenchment, buildup, and proxy project in the region, while preserving Tehran's nuclear threshold stature is causing the Sunni camp to take unprecedented steps in the regional arena.

In this respect, the historical encounter in Sharm el-Sheikh between the Egyptian President, Israeli Prime Minister and UAE Crown Prince demonstrates the region's sense of urgency. The meeting aimed to bolster security and military partnership in view of the intensifying Iranian threat, as well as anchor U.S. support of the regional force that will form on the morning after "the nuclear deal", alongside the enhancement of economic collaborations following the repercussions of the world financial crisis.

The Negev Summit attended by the U.S. Secretary of State and foreign ministers of Egypt, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Israel at Sde Boker aimed to formulate the regional security strategy vis-à-vis Iran's destabilizing activity, as well as strengthen the United States' strategic commitment to countries in the region, and to curbing Iran's moves. To paraphrase Hippocrates' "desperate times call for desperate measures", it seems that the magnitude of the security and economic crisis is fertile ground for historical breakthroughs in Israel's bilateral relations with the Arab world. The summit illustrates Jerusalem's key role and growing valuableness in the regional forming force, as well as the Arab states' willingness to advance joint steps with Israel publicly without even making any concrete commitment to the Palestinian issue.

Implications

Israel has successfully established itself as a mediator between the parties to the war in Europe without having to pay any price for it at this stage. Jerusalem should exhaust its role as mediator, and avoid burning bridges with Russia. However, as the crisis continues and the prospects of political resolution of the conflict diminish, and the magnitude of Russian atrocities revealed, Israel must stand by the United States and the west in condemning Moscow.
The United States' national security set of priorities, as well as the broadening scope of threats to its security and status, could compromise American deterrence in the Middle East in view of Washington's focus on Russia, China and North Korea. This state of affairs could lead to greater Iranian boldness in the region when targeting Israel and the Gulf states, as well as to overall regional destabilization. A dent in U.S. deterrence will also directly impact Israel's position against Iran and, under a dangerous scenario, its relations with Russia in the Syrian arena. Israel should strengthen its security-military partnership with the United States while anchoring the latter's commitment to Israel and the region as part of both Jerusalem's and Washington's overall national security perception.
At the same time, Israel is preparing for the re-signing of the nuclear agreement between the great powers and Iran by reinforcing its strategic partnership with countries in the region, and exerting public pressure on Washington to refrain from lifting the sanctions from the IRGC. The meeting at Sharm el-Sheikh and historic summit in Sde Boker illustrate the Sunni Camp and Israel's shared perception of the Iranian threat, as well as the need to regroup in view of the economic Tsunami washing over the region. Israel is wisely establishing itself as a key actor in the regional force forming, as well as an effective mediator capable of mitigating the growing tension between the Gulf states and U.S. Jerusalem should keep reinforcing its valuableness to countries in the region as well as to Washington while formulating an overall regional state security strategy.
Israel should spearhead a process of accelerated military force buildup in view of the aggravating Iranian nuclear threat in the upcoming decade. At the same time, Jerusalem should ensure that the IDF's qualitative military edge (QME) is maintained, both in light of significant force buildup processes led by the Arab world following the growing Iranian threat, and Washington's desire to establish its own valuableness by selling advanced weapons.
In addition, there is "the black swan" of regional turmoil following economic collapse, which must also be taken into account in Israeli assessments – the fear of states going bankrupt, compromised food security, and growing destabilization in view of the aggravated global crisis. Regional turmoil will negatively affect the regional strategy vis-à-vis Iran, weaken the overall security architecture, and create an old-new world of threats. While chaotic regional dynamics create an opportunity for Israel to bolster its strategic ties with countries in the region, Jerusalem should go the extra mile and help stabilize them (from a financial and security perspective) wherever possible, whether directly or using measures taken in the international arena.
Escalation in the Palestinian arena could be a gamechanger that projects onto Jerusalem's regional strategy and its relations with Washington. The recent terror attacks have demonstrated the existing explosivity, as well as the risk of flaring up into a strategic escalatory event. Israel must tone the tension down, particularly in anticipation of Ramadan, while reinforcing the economic and humanitarian levers as it prepares for military escalation that could develop in any one of the arenas. The absence of an overall strategy for the Palestinian issue, except for the current "conflict management" policy that employs "sticks and carrots", limits Israel's ability to take action to the operative and reactive space, playing into the hands of Hamas on the strategic level, particularly in view of the development of a game-changing event, such as "the morning after" Abu Mazen.