The conflict with Hamas:
A strategic rerouting is required
Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS
Executive Director
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
June, 2021
Photo: Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs | CC BY-NC 2.0
The campaign in Gaza is emerging as a seminal event with strategic implications that reflect on multiple arenas and issues that far exceed the parties' military balance.
Here are 10 insights on the conflict with Hamas.
Here are 10 insights on the conflict with Hamas.
1. Hamas' and Israel's rationales run parallel to one another
While Israel based its policy vis à vis Hamas on a combination of rehabilitation and deterrence as a foundation for stability and understandings in Gaza, when push came to shove, the Palestinian group's ideological-religious agenda superseded all other considerations. Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, reported as having become more restrained and responsible by the yoke of power, emerged as a leader immersed in the idea of resistance and the vision of overtaking the Palestinian arena en route to "liberating" all of Palestine.
2. The failed Israeli strategy
The perception whereby a peace process based on the two-state solution may be avoided by recognizing Hamas' rule in Gaza and improving civil conditions in the Gaza Strip on the one hand, while weakening the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank on the other, all the while maintaining a security equilibrium - has collapsed.
3. Hamas' accomplishments and the potential for a multi-arena campaign
Hamas can pride itself on a series of accomplishments. It has proven to be the key player impacting the goings-on in the Palestinian arena, and has positioned itself, at least temporarily, as "defender of Jerusalem". Hamas' campaign triggered a violent uprising in Israeli Arab society, as well as destabilization in the West Bank, and even on the northern border, disrupting developments in domestic Israeli politics.
4. The U.S. is not writing an open check
The Biden Administration, in its first test in the Palestinian arena, supported Israel's right to defend itself, offering its support in the UN Security Council as well. However, the escalation revealed the growing weight of the critical approach to Israel among Democratic Party ranks and constituency, unveiling the detrimental harm caused to one of Israel's most significant assets in the United States – its status as a bipartisan consensus.
The war in Gaza has demonstrated Israel's profound need in American support and optimal coordination with the administration on all the strategic challenges it faces. Under these circumstances, a conflict with Biden over his efforts to return to the JCPOA with Iran is not only futile, as it clashes with the United States' strategic global agenda, but may even be detrimental to Israel's ability to receive the American assistance, support and guarantees it requires in various arenas. Should Israel fail to fully stand by the United States in its struggle over world order against China, similar negative impact may be made.
The war in Gaza has demonstrated Israel's profound need in American support and optimal coordination with the administration on all the strategic challenges it faces. Under these circumstances, a conflict with Biden over his efforts to return to the JCPOA with Iran is not only futile, as it clashes with the United States' strategic global agenda, but may even be detrimental to Israel's ability to receive the American assistance, support and guarantees it requires in various arenas. Should Israel fail to fully stand by the United States in its struggle over world order against China, similar negative impact may be made.
5. The military balance
The IDF managed to neutralize the threat of the terror tunnels in advance, and severely harm Hamas' and Islamic Jihad's operative command and manufacturing infrastructure above and below ground. In defense, the IDF thwarted operations the enemy attempted to pursue, and successfully operated Iron Dome so as to prevent high numbers of casualties and damage to property in the home front, which showed remarkable resilience.
However, Hamas surprised Israel by initiating the campaign and launching rockets to Jerusalem, as well as with its unprecedented capability (based, inter alia, on assistance and knowledge from Iran) to launch relatively broad and accurate salvos, some aimed at central Israel, a small number of which successfully penetrated Israel's defense system; disrupting normal life in large areas in Israel while displaying no shortage of breath; and using psychological warfare against the Israeli public.
However, Hamas surprised Israel by initiating the campaign and launching rockets to Jerusalem, as well as with its unprecedented capability (based, inter alia, on assistance and knowledge from Iran) to launch relatively broad and accurate salvos, some aimed at central Israel, a small number of which successfully penetrated Israel's defense system; disrupting normal life in large areas in Israel while displaying no shortage of breath; and using psychological warfare against the Israeli public.
6. Israeli fabric of life
The violence that erupted in Arab society is a crisis in Arab-Jewish relations, and a manifestation of Israel's enduring failure in integration, governance, and law enforcement against crime and violence. Governance issues are also apparent when addressing Jewish extremist vigilantes. These events are the resounding failure of the Arab leadership as well, who, with the exception of very few instances, tagged along and followed the rioters' lead instead of displaying leadership and urging them to cease their belligerence.
7. The Palestinian Authority
The security value that the PA and Abu Mazen's leadership provide in maintaining stability in the West Bank, even under extreme conditions, has been demonstrated again. The Palestinian Authority has not stepped away from security coordination with the IDF, and Abu Mazen's spokesperson has even justified it during the events as a manifestation of sovereignty and protection of the Palestinian People.
8. Arab states and normalization
The escalation has demonstrated a lower level of sensitivity in the Arab world for the Palestinian issue, and that Hamas, a Muslim Brotherhood organization who is an adversary of the important moderate regimes in the Gulf and Egypt, is relatively isolated.
Nevertheless, the conflicts in Gaza and Jerusalem, as well as the incidents in Arab society, place a genuine hurdle on the path to expanding the normalization accords, while also casting a long shadow over Israel's relations with the peace states – Egypt and Jordan.
The Hashemite Kingdom's stability and its collaboration with Israel, both of which have stood the test of the escalation, are an essential strategic need of Israel's.
Egypt has made a "comeback" as regional leader. It seems that the role Cairo played – which the U.S. administration defined as "critical" – will serve to strengthen Biden's view whereby a realistic policy that does not place issues such as democracy and human rights above all else, is the right way for the U.S. to conduct itself vis à vis its Middle Eastern allies.
Nevertheless, the conflicts in Gaza and Jerusalem, as well as the incidents in Arab society, place a genuine hurdle on the path to expanding the normalization accords, while also casting a long shadow over Israel's relations with the peace states – Egypt and Jordan.
The Hashemite Kingdom's stability and its collaboration with Israel, both of which have stood the test of the escalation, are an essential strategic need of Israel's.
Egypt has made a "comeback" as regional leader. It seems that the role Cairo played – which the U.S. administration defined as "critical" – will serve to strengthen Biden's view whereby a realistic policy that does not place issues such as democracy and human rights above all else, is the right way for the U.S. to conduct itself vis à vis its Middle Eastern allies.
9. Iran and the radical axis
The events in Gaza could strengthen Iran's confidence to expand its efforts in building up its proxies' force, and increase its own terror activity against Israel, as it did when it launched a drone to Israeli territory during the escalation. In a reality in which the regional Iranian image is enhanced against the backdrop of the expected return to the nuclear deal, Hizballah's boldness may also increase, for while it was clearly deterred from waging war against Israel, it was nevertheless willing to risk turning a blind eye to several rocket launching incidents from Lebanon.
10. The home front's readiness and public diplomacy
The fighting in Gaza and Hamas' improved rocket capabilities have revealed gaps in conduct and readiness, as well as faulty infrastructure in the home front (Ashkelon being a prime example). These gaps may turn out to be crucial in a war against Hizballah. The shortcomings of public diplomacy and the connection with the public that were also prominent during the COVID-19 crisis were underscored during the escalation, both inwardly in the discourse with the Israeli public and outwardly when addressing the regional and global arenas.
Where do we go from here?
The events in Jerusalem and Gaza have shown that Israel cannot turn to the Sunni Arab states without addressing the Palestinian problem as it could turn into a multi-arena conflagration.
Israel must reverse its priorities in the Palestinian arena policy it has adopted. It must take steps to weaken and contain Hamas without compromising on improving the humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, as it is in Israel's best interest. At the same time, it should drastically alter its approach toward the Palestinian Authority, which represents the political alternative to this conflict resolution, and must be strengthened by all means. Meanwhile, in Jerusalem, Jordan's role in preserving and deepening the status quo should also be strengthened.
In its relations with the United States, Israel would do well to shift from loud, oppositional diplomacy with the Biden administration – which negatively reflects on its overall relations with the United States – to quiet, intimate dialogue based on the two countries' shared view that Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, while relying on the effective collaboration channels between the two countries in areas such as intelligence, defense, and operations.
As part of this shift, Israel should reintroduce the two-state solution into its discourse in close coordination with the U.S. administration and Arab states, and discontinue its "creeping annexation". Such steps will strengthen the Palestinian Authority as a governing system. Moreover, Israel must strive to build the PA as an alternative to Hamas' rule in Gaza in the long range; otherwise, the only alternative in the Gaza Strip will remain Israel itself.
The events in Gaza have proven that dependence upon Qatari funds is not a stable solution, and it is best to pursue 'sponsors' who will be able to utilize the financial assistance to restrain Hamas and bolster the Palestinian Authority. Either way, a more stringent oversight mechanism should be put in place (with regional and international participation) to ensure that assistance to projects and dual-use materials entering Gaza will not be diverted to be used for Hamas' military force buildup.
Within Israel's borders, Arab society's exacerbating issues form a strategic challenge and ticking time bomb, posing a threat to Israel's very existence as a law-abiding civilized state. The Israeli government should implement uncompromising enforcement to bring back order (intelligence, arrests, legal action, deterring punishments) while immediately implementing and expanding the national plans and budgets for the Arab society. At the heart of this effort, it must eradicate crime, encourage local leaderships and support them, as well as accelerate integration processes with Jewish society and state institutions.
Israel must reverse its priorities in the Palestinian arena policy it has adopted. It must take steps to weaken and contain Hamas without compromising on improving the humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, as it is in Israel's best interest. At the same time, it should drastically alter its approach toward the Palestinian Authority, which represents the political alternative to this conflict resolution, and must be strengthened by all means. Meanwhile, in Jerusalem, Jordan's role in preserving and deepening the status quo should also be strengthened.
In its relations with the United States, Israel would do well to shift from loud, oppositional diplomacy with the Biden administration – which negatively reflects on its overall relations with the United States – to quiet, intimate dialogue based on the two countries' shared view that Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, while relying on the effective collaboration channels between the two countries in areas such as intelligence, defense, and operations.
As part of this shift, Israel should reintroduce the two-state solution into its discourse in close coordination with the U.S. administration and Arab states, and discontinue its "creeping annexation". Such steps will strengthen the Palestinian Authority as a governing system. Moreover, Israel must strive to build the PA as an alternative to Hamas' rule in Gaza in the long range; otherwise, the only alternative in the Gaza Strip will remain Israel itself.
The events in Gaza have proven that dependence upon Qatari funds is not a stable solution, and it is best to pursue 'sponsors' who will be able to utilize the financial assistance to restrain Hamas and bolster the Palestinian Authority. Either way, a more stringent oversight mechanism should be put in place (with regional and international participation) to ensure that assistance to projects and dual-use materials entering Gaza will not be diverted to be used for Hamas' military force buildup.
Within Israel's borders, Arab society's exacerbating issues form a strategic challenge and ticking time bomb, posing a threat to Israel's very existence as a law-abiding civilized state. The Israeli government should implement uncompromising enforcement to bring back order (intelligence, arrests, legal action, deterring punishments) while immediately implementing and expanding the national plans and budgets for the Arab society. At the heart of this effort, it must eradicate crime, encourage local leaderships and support them, as well as accelerate integration processes with Jewish society and state institutions.